False positive paradox - Revision history

WikiSysop: /* See Also */

2008-05-28T10:19:56Z

‎See Also

WikiSysop at 10:19, 28 May 2008

2008-05-28T10:19:40Z

WikiSysop at 13:10, 21 May 2008

2008-05-21T13:10:51Z

WikiSysop at 13:10, 21 May 2008

2008-05-21T13:10:43Z

WikiSysop at 13:10, 21 May 2008

2008-05-21T13:10:20Z

WikiSysop at 13:09, 21 May 2008

2008-05-21T13:09:24Z

WikiSysop at 13:07, 21 May 2008

2008-05-21T13:07:12Z

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False Positive Paradox is where the incidence of the condition occurring is lower than the false positive rate of the test. Therefore when the test shows that the condition exists, it is more probable that the result is just a false positive.

For example, assuming you have a test that is 99% accurate, this would mean that if the test were to be applied to 100 people, 99 people would get an accurate result, while 1 person would get an inaccurate result. But if the test were to be applied to 100 000 people, the 99 000 people would get an accurate result, while 1000 people would get an inaccurate result. Now, if this test was to find a very rare disease that occured 1 in every 1 000 000 people, then there would be more inaccurate results than people who are likely to get this disease.

*False Positive - Type I Error / α error : returning null hypothesis when it is actually true
*False Negative - Type II Error / β error: returning true

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 == See Also ==
-[[Rare Events]]
+*[[Rare Events]]
-[[Black Swan]]
+*[[Black Swan]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:19, 28 May 2008
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	<blockquote>"The single most pernicious threat to liberty today is humanity's natural tendency to misunderstand the statistics of rare events. We're just not wired to have good intuition about things that happen with extreme infrequency." - [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/20/rare.events Cory Doctorow in the Guardian]</blockquote>		<blockquote>"The single most pernicious threat to liberty today is humanity's natural tendency to misunderstand the statistics of rare events. We're just not wired to have good intuition about things that happen with extreme infrequency." - [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/20/rare.events Cory Doctorow in the Guardian]</blockquote>
		+
		+	== See Also ==
		+	[[Rare Events]]
		+	[[Black Swan]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:10, 21 May 2008
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	*False Negative - Type II Error / β error: returning true		*False Negative - Type II Error / β error: returning true

−	<blockquote>"The single most pernicious threat to liberty today is humanity's natural	+	<blockquote>"The single most pernicious threat to liberty today is humanity's natural tendency to misunderstand the statistics of rare events. We're just not wired to have good intuition about things that happen with extreme infrequency." - [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/20/rare.events Cory Doctorow in the Guardian]</blockquote>
−	tendency to misunderstand the statistics of rare events. We're just not wired to have good intuition about things that happen with extreme infrequency." - [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/20/rare.events Cory Doctorow in the Guardian]</blockquote>

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:10, 21 May 2008
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	<blockquote>"The single most pernicious threat to liberty today is humanity's natural		<blockquote>"The single most pernicious threat to liberty today is humanity's natural
−	tendency to misunderstand the statistics of rare events. We're just not wired to have good intuition about things that happen with extreme infrequency. - [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/20/rare.events Cory Doctorow]</blockquote>	+	tendency to misunderstand the statistics of rare events. We're just not wired to have good intuition about things that happen with extreme infrequency." - [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/20/rare.events Cory Doctorow in the Guardian]</blockquote>

@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 *False Negative - Type II Error / β error: returning true
-"The single most pernicious threat to liberty today is humanity's natural
+<blockquote>"The single most pernicious threat to liberty today is humanity's natural
-tendency to misunderstand the statistics of rare events. We're just not wired to have good intuition about things that happen with extreme infrequency. - [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/20/rare.events Cory Doctorow]
+tendency to misunderstand the statistics of rare events. We're just not wired to have good intuition about things that happen with extreme infrequency. - [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/20/rare.events Cory Doctorow]</blockquote>

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:09, 21 May 2008
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	*False Positive - Type I Error / α error : returning null hypothesis when it is actually true		*False Positive - Type I Error / α error : returning null hypothesis when it is actually true
	*False Negative - Type II Error / β error: returning true		*False Negative - Type II Error / β error: returning true
		+
		+	"The single most pernicious threat to liberty today is humanity's natural
		+	tendency to misunderstand the statistics of rare events. We're just not wired to have good intuition about things that happen with extreme infrequency. - [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/20/rare.events Cory Doctorow]